After a short hiatus involving a flat move, 2 weeks without internet and some excellent beach weather I have finally got round to begin a series of posts looking at the underlying statistics of the 2011/12 season. There will be lots of general, league wide data featured over the next two weeks, along with some City related data.
As a rough estimate this may well be part 1 of 20 or so posts that I shall put up. The reader may well not find all the posts interesting, there will be a lot of stats some advanced stuff, some measures that were not in existence before this season. But I think the majority of the posts may well be illuminating, well, here's to hoping!
After the jump we'll take a look at the EPL table and then an alternate look using points conceded as the measure. This basically involves adding the number of points the opposition has taken from from a team(draws and losses)
A League table using the measurement of points conceded is one that I have not seen before and it is a measure I stumbled across whilst researching other topics. In essence an EPL table by points conceded tells us who was the hardest team to beat, who didn't give up points so easily.
2011/12 EPL table
Man City 89 pts
Man Utd 89 pts
Arsenal 70 pts
Spurs 69 pts
Newcastle 65 pts
Chelsea 64 pts
Everton 56 pts
Liverpool 52 pts
Fulham 52 pts
WBA 47 pts
Swansea 47 pts
Norwich 47 pts
Sunderland 45 pts
Stoke 45 pts
Wigan 43 pts
Aston Villa 38 pts
QPR 37 pts
Bolton 36 pts
Blackburn 31 pts
Wolves 25 pts
2011/12 EPL Table By Points Conceded
Italics are points per game conceded
Man City 20 pts 0.52 ppg
Man Utd 20 pts 0.52 ppg
Spurs 36 pts 0.94 ppg
Arsenal 37 pts 0.97 ppg
Chelsea 40 pts 1.05 ppg
Newcastle 41 pts 1.08 ppg
Everton 47 pts 1.23 ppg
Liverpool 52 pts 1.36 ppg
Fulham 52 pts 1.36 ppg
Swansea 56 pts 1.47 ppg
Norwich 56 pts 1.47 ppg
Sunderland 57 pts 1.5 ppg
Stoke 57 pts 1.5 ppg
WBA 59 pts 1.55 ppg
Aston Villa 59 pts 1.55 ppg
Wigan 61 pts 1.60 ppg
QPR 70 pts 1.84 ppg
Bolton 72 pts 1.89 ppg
Blackburn 76 pts 2.00 ppg
Wolves 79 pts 2.07 ppg
We can see some movement here when using this measure.
- Spurs and Chelsea both rise a place
- Stoke rise 1 place
- WBA sink 4 places
The uniformity between points gained and conceded is quite strong, the top six is still the top six, albeit in a changed order. The bottom six is still the bottom six
This measure really just tells us who were the stubborn teams, the best teams are usually the hardest to play against, WBA being the one outer-marker in decline.
We can also work out by a teams points conceded per game what the chance of losing any given game was. Wolves' was a 69 % chance of conceding all 3 points, Man Utd had a 17.3 % chance of conceding all 3 points in any given game.
Points gained/conceded +/-
Man City 89/20 +69
Man Utd 89/20 +69
Arsenal 70/37 +33
Spurs 69/36 +33
Chelsea 64/40 +24
Newcastle 65/41 +24
Everton 56/47 +9
Liverpool 52/52 0
Fulham 52/52 0
Swansea 47/56 -9
Norwich 47/56 -9
Stoke 47/57 -10
Sunderland 45/57 -12
WBA 47/59 -12
Wigan 43/61 -18
Aston Villa 38/59 -21
QPR 37/70 -33
Bolton 36/72 -36
Blackburn 31/76 -45
Wolves 25/79 -54
There are only 7 + teams by this measure in the league, I think that Man Utd's and Man City's dominace this season have skewed this number slightly and created a slightly uneven league in terms of +/- points gained/conceded. I suspect we would see something very similar for La Liga.