How do the Manchester clubs shape up when their fixtures are a tied game state?
Game states again! This time about we are going to compare the Manchester clubs' performances against one another. We are only going to be looking at the tied game state.
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There are a couple of differences evident between the two Premier league powerhouses. Firstly, just look at how few shot events Man United have recorded at home when the game is tied. This small sample skews their number somewhat, but it's all we have. TSR is similar for both clubs, goals for and against are not similar, with City having the better +/-.
Man City with the near par PDO and Man United's lagging someway behind. Interesting to note how Man City PDO is built on the back of a strong save% and how United's is powered by that very high scoring%.
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This is a better set of data, with shot totals pretty similar for both clubs.
Note City's excellent TSR, but as we move along the chart we see that the goals scored column is unacceptable, and it's all down to the horrendously poor/unlucky 4.62% scoring%. United don't suffer from a low scoring% and have thus scored 14 goals.
Save% is pretty close between the two clubs (United having massively improved their number from their previous home number) but City's poor scoring% really pulls their PDO number down.
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Man City win the shots and TSR battle by some distance. United have scored 6 more goals than their cross-town neighbours and that is off the back of a ridiculously high scoring%.
United's scoring% could be driven by talent, luck, both, neither, or Ferguson's voodoo corner and crossing magic. We won't be able to discover what is driving that scoring% (or nicking their save%) but it is covering a lot of gaps in Man United's form.
Both clubs have an almost identical PDO's, but the United PDO is scoring% driven and City's is save% driven. Have both teams been unlucky to an extent, or do the constituent parts of their respective PDO's tell us a little about the strength and weaknesses of each squad?
TSR (Moving Average)
We know City's TSR at a tied game state is superior to United's, but what I find interesting here is how long it takes a team to get to their 'true level' of TSR.
9 or 10 games for a team to exhibit it's normal level of Total Shots Ratio, and that Ratio will still suffer peaks and troughs once at it's normal level.